|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李日健,郭莹,冯国双,等.应用MSN模型估计中国大陆地区2012年肝癌死亡情况[J].慢性病学杂志,2015,(04):362-366.
　LIRi-jian *,GUO Ying,FENG Guo-shuang,et al.Using MSN spatial model to estimate mortality of liver cancer for2012in China[J].,2015,(04):362-366.
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应用MSN模型估计中国大陆地区2012年肝癌死亡情况(PDF)

《慢性病学杂志》[ISSN:1674-8166/CN:11-5900/R]

卷:
期数:
2015年04期
页码:
362-366
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2015-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Using MSN spatial model to estimate mortality of liver cancer for2012in China
作者:
李日健; 郭莹1 ; 冯国双2 ; 徐成东3 ; 胡茂桂3 ; 王劲峰3 ; 胡跃华2 ; 于石成2 ; 马家奇4
1.北京协和医学院公共卫生学院，北京 100006；2.中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室,北京 102206； 3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101； 4.中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心，北京102206
Author(s):
LIRi-jian * ; GUO Ying; FENG Guo-shuang; XU Cheng-dong; HU Mao-gui; WANG Jin-feng;  HU Yue-hua; YU Shi-cheng; MA Jia-qi
*School of Public Health,Peking UnionMedicalCollege, Beijing100006, China; Correspondingauthor:YUShi-cheng,E-mail:shicheng_yu@163.com
关键词:
MSN模型; 肝癌; 死亡率; 估计
Keywords:
Means of Surfaces with Non-Homogeneity;  Liver cancer;  Mortality;  Spatial model
分类号:
R378.1
DOI:
-
摘要:
目的 利用“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”全国监测点数据估计中国大陆地区2012年肝癌死亡情 况。方法 按照国家统计局分类方法将全国分为东、中、西三层，应用非均质表面估计模型（MSN）估计 全国、分地区和分省的肝癌死亡率和死亡数。结果 2012年全国肝癌死亡率为26.12/10万，死亡人数为 350 886.5人，中部地区肝癌死亡率最高30.14/10万，东部和西部地区分别为24.55/10万和24.07/10万； 死亡人数东部最高136 190.02人，中部次之127 977.40人，西部最低87 626.74人。从分省的结果来看， 肝癌死亡率估计值最高的5个省份是广西、重庆、黑龙江、吉林和上海，死亡率（1/10万）分别为 46.23、41.49、41.38、40.96和37.82。肝癌死亡数最高的5个省份是广东、山东、河南、四川和广西，其 值分别为28 639.7、25 293.93、24 692.93、24 561.92和21 289.84。结论 应用MSN模型能够充分利用 监测点的数据，相对准确地估算全国肝癌死亡情况，更好地为公共卫生决策服务。
Abstract:
Objective To estimate mortality of liver cancer for2012 in China based on the data of the Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) from the National Disease Reporting Information System.Meth-ods The whole country of China was divided into three regions of the eastern, central, and western according to the administrative division from the National Bureau of Statistics. The spatial statistical model of Means of Surfaces with Non-Homogeneity (MSN) was used to estimate the mortality of liver cancer for the national level, regional level, and provincial level on the basis of the estimation of 2 926 counties or districts in China. Results The estimated mortality rate of liver cancer was26.12 per 100 000 in 2012, the number of deaths was 350 886.5 cases as a whole in China. The central region ranked the highest mortality rate of 30.14per 100 000; the eastern and western regions were 24.55 and 24.07 per 100 000, respectively. The eastern region had the highest number of liver cancer deaths with 136190.02 cases, following the central and western regions with 127977.40and 87626.74cases, respec-tively. At the provincial level the top five provinces of liver cancer mortality rate were Guangxi, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Shanghai, their estimated values were46.23,41.49,41.38,40.96,and 37.82 per 100 000, respectively. The provinces with the highest numbers of liver cancer deaths wereGuangdong, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangxi; their estimated values were 28 639.7, 25 293.93, 24 692.93, 24 561.92, and 21 289.84 cases, respectively. Conclusions MSN spatial model can be applied to estimate the mortality of liver cancer with a high degree of accurancy at the three levels of the national, the regional, and the provincial.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金资助：淮河流域癌症综合防治项目（1310800003） 作者简介：李日健，在读研究生，研究方向为统计学方法在公共卫生领域中的应用 通信作者：于石成，E-mail:shicheng_yu@163.com，马家奇，E-mail: majq@Chinacdc.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-08-25